The Netherlands just dropped a tax bombshell that should make every French investor sit up and pay attention. Starting January 2028, Dutch residents face a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains from crypto, stocks, and bonds. Yes, you read that correctly, paper profits you haven’t actually cashed in could soon trigger a substantial tax bill in the Netherlands. For anyone building a portfolio in France, this isn’t just a quirky foreign policy decision. It’s a potential preview of what might come to French shores.
What the Dutch Law Actually Does
The Dutch House of Representatives approved the Wet werkelijk rendement box 3 (Actual Return in Box 3 Act) in February 2026, replacing a system that had been ruled unconstitutional by the Dutch Supreme Court. The old framework taxed investment income based on assumed returns, which bore no resemblance to actual market performance during periods of low interest rates. The new system seems simpler on paper but introduces a radical concept: taxing real returns as they happen, not when you sell.
Under the new rules, Dutch tax residents must pay 36% on the actual returns from their savings and investments. This includes not only dividends and interest but also the annual increase in value of assets like stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies, even if those assets remain unsold. If your crypto portfolio gains €10,000 in value over a year, that €10,000 becomes taxable income, regardless of whether you’ve converted a single satoshi to euros.
The law includes a €1,800 tax-free return threshold and allows unlimited loss carry-forward, but these provisions do little to address the core liquidity problem. As one financial analyst noted, many crypto-asset holders may consider leaving the country rather than facing tax bills on phantom profits.
Why This Is Causing Panic Among Investors
The liquidity issue is the most immediate concern. Investors could be forced to sell assets to pay taxes on gains they haven’t realized. Imagine holding a stock that surged in January but crashed by December. You’ve paid tax on the January high but have no actual profit to show for it. The unlimited loss carry-forward helps, but it doesn’t put cash back in your pocket today.
Critics argue the law disproportionately harms middle-class investors while sparing the truly wealthy. The Dutch legislation exempts holdings and shareholders with more than 5% of a company’s shares. As one observer pointed out, if the goal was to target ultra-rich individuals using collateralized loans, the threshold would be much higher than €1,800. Instead, many see this as a deliberate move to penalize financial emancipation of the working and middle classes.
A Dutch engineer at ASML voiced a common fear: seeing taxes on their employee share plan multiply tenfold, making that job offer from a Shanghai competitor suddenly much more attractive. This sentiment reflects a broader concern about talent flight and capital migration.
The French System: A Stark Contrast
For now, French investors operate under radically different rules. The French fiscalité (taxation system) follows a simple principle: no sale, no tax. Gains from crypto and stocks are subject to the prélèvement forfaitaire unique (flat tax) of 30%, but only when you actually sell and realize the profit. Crypto-to-crypto exchanges don’t trigger taxation, only conversions to fiat currency or purchases of goods and services count as taxable events.
The DGFiP (Direction Générale des Finances Publiques) requires French residents to declare all foreign crypto exchange accounts via formulaire 3916-bis, but this is purely informational. The tax hammer only falls when you cash out.
This approach aligns with most European countries. Germany applies a 25% withholding tax at the point of sale. Norway taxes capital gains at realization. The Dutch model of annual mark-to-market taxation stands alone in Europe, making it either visionary or reckless depending on your perspective.
Could This Dutch Experiment Cross the Border?
French policymakers are watching closely. Bercy (the French Ministry of Finance) has shown increasing interest in maximizing tax revenue from investment activities while closing perceived loopholes. The Dutch Supreme Court’s ruling that forced this change began with a constitutional challenge, something that could theoretically happen in France as well.
The European Union’s push for tax harmonization adds another layer of pressure. While taxation remains a national competency, Brussels has been vocal about ensuring “fair taxation” across member states. A Dutch official openly stated that taxing unrealized gains was easier to implement and would avoid billions in budget losses compared to waiting for actual realizations.
French investors should note that their government has already shown willingness to modify investment taxation. Recent debates around the PEA (Plan d’Épargne en Actions) and French government scrutiny of investment vehicles and potential tax or regulatory changes affecting portfolios demonstrate that no investment wrapper is sacred. The PEA, long a favorite for its tax advantages, has faced proposals to limit its benefits or modify its structure.
The Crypto-Specific Nightmare
For crypto investors, the Dutch law presents unique challenges. The crypto market’s volatility means a portfolio could surge 200% by the tax assessment date, generating a massive tax liability, then collapse 80% the following month. You’ve paid tax on wealth that evaporated before you could access it.
French crypto holders currently enjoy more flexibility. The seuil d’exonération (exemption threshold) of €305 means small transactions fly under the radar. More importantly, the ability to convert to stablecoins without triggering tax allows for strategic portfolio management. Under the Dutch system, even stablecoin holdings would be marked to market annually.
The implementation challenges are enormous. How will Dutch tax authorities verify holdings on private wallets? The law assumes perfect transparency, but the crypto ecosystem includes hardware wallets, decentralized protocols, and privacy coins that resist easy valuation. This creates enforcement headaches that French authorities, already struggling with basic crypto tax compliance, would find overwhelming.
What French Investors Should Do Now
While France hasn’t proposed similar measures, history shows tax ideas spread quickly among European finance ministries. The Dutch reform addresses a “problem” that French officials have also identified: wealthy individuals living off collateralized loans while deferring taxes indefinitely. If the Dutch model shows even modest revenue success, expect similar proposals in Paris.
Practical steps for French investors:
Document everything. The DGFiP already requires meticulous record-keeping for crypto transactions. Maintain detailed logs of acquisition costs, dates, and wallet addresses. If France adopts mark-to-market taxation, you’ll need this data to calculate annual changes.
Diversify account locations carefully. While moving assets to foreign exchanges might seem appealing, this triggers formulaire 3916-bis obligations and could complicate matters if France pursues similar policies. The Dutch law applies to worldwide assets of residents, location doesn’t matter.
Monitor political developments. The Dutch Senate hasn’t yet approved the law, and legal challenges are certain. French investors should watch the outcome closely. If the law survives court challenges and generates revenue, it becomes a template.
Consider tax-advantaged wrappers. The PEA remains one of Europe’s most attractive investment vehicles, offering tax-free growth until withdrawal. While Bercy has shown interest in reforming it, the PEA’s popularity makes radical changes politically difficult. Maximize its benefits while you can.
The Dutch experiment represents a fundamental shift from taxing realized wealth to taxing potential wealth. For French investors accustomed to the current system, the message is clear: today’s tax advantages are not guaranteed tomorrow. The window for building wealth under favorable conditions may be narrowing.
As one French crypto investor remarked, “The rule is simple: no sale, no tax, for now.” That “for now” has never sounded more precarious.
